Solid state storage might not have been the most exciting tech sector to follow in 2020, but it certainly had its fair share of new technologies arriving, consumer-friendly price drops, and a major corporate acquisition deal.

COVID-19 Impact on Supply and Demand

Going into 2020, most analysts were predicting that a shortage of NAND flash memory would develop and drive up SSD prices, especially in the second half of the year. The COVID-19 pandemic upended those predictions. Early on in the pandemic, it was anybody's guess whether supply or demand would be more strongly affected. By the middle of the year, it was clear that the fabs in Asia where most of the world's NAND flash is manufactured were able to weather the pandemic with no significant drop in manufacturing capacity.

The lifestyle shifts to work-from-home and online learning drove some demand for new PCs and increased server capacity for online services, but the broader economic impact of the pandemic largely outweighed those effects and hurt overall demand. The net effect is that, contrary to pre-pandemic predictions, SSD demand is low enough that the NAND flash market has an oversupply and prices are in decline. This is expected to continue through at least the first quarter of 2021 with a 10-15% drop in NAND flash memory prices. The impact on retail SSD prices will be somewhat dulled by the fact that supplies are tight for SSD controllers and some other components, which may push SSD manufacturers to focus a bit more on high-capacity high-end drives, especially datacenter drives.

Gaming Consoles Switch to NVMe

Perhaps the biggest shift in consumer storage this year was the arrival of gaming consoles built from the ground up to take advantage of solid state storage. Consoles generally establish the baseline hardware capabilities that games and game engines are designed to target. For over 15 years, this has meant that AAA games are designed to run off hard drives. Even as SSDs have become prevalent in gaming PCs, it has until recently been unthinkable for a game to list a SSD as part of its minimum system requirements. The PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X have now raised the baseline storage performance from that of a mechanical hard drive to a NVMe SSD, and game developers are actively encouraged to take advantage that extra performance. Furthermore, the consoles include various other hardware features intended to complement the new console SSDs; we gave you the rundown on those features and their implications back in June.

So far, the console transition to NVMe storage has had little impact on the PC market or PC gaming—but the consoles have only been shipping for a short while, and game developers are still learning how to adapt to the new freedoms granted by fast storage. This console storage transition will be having more influence on PCs over the next few years. Microsoft is already working to adapt their new Xbox storage APIs into DirectStorage for Windows, and it won't be long before most AAA games require SSDs. For gaming PCs, including a NVMe SSD will be just as important as including a discrete GPU.

Read More: Storage Matters: Why Xbox and Playstation SSDs Usher In A New Era of Gaming

PCIe 4.0 Gaining Momentum

The transition to PCIe 4.0 started in the middle of 2019 with the debut of AMD's Ryzen 3000 processors. On the storage side of that transition, SSD controller vendor Phison led the way with their E16 controller. But in 2019 and most of 2020, PCIe 4.0 storage remained a niche market segment, only available on new high-end desktops and with SSDs that offered only marginal performance improvement over the best PCIe 3 drives but carried much higher price tags.

All of Phison's competitors decided to take their time with the PCIe 4.0 transition; 2020 was supposed to be the year that a new wave of gen4 SSD controllers arrived, fabbed on more advanced processes like TSMC's 12nm FinFET so that the full performance of a PCIe 4 x4 interface could be reached within a reasonable power budget. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to delays here as well, and many new SSDs previewed at CES at the beginning of the year arrived late or are still missing. Samsung and Western Digital delivered their new in-house gen4 NVMe SSD controllers during the second half of the year, and SSDs using Phison's E18 controller hit the market at the end of November, just in time to catch the tail end of the holiday shopping season. Silicon Motion's entry-level gen4 controller also arrived this fall, but their high-end contender is not yet available. Planned gen4 controllers from Marvell are absent (though their NVMe controllers have all but vanished from the consumer SSD market anyways), and Innogrit's high-end NVMe controller only just showed up this week in the ADATA Gammix S70 that is currently sampling and should hit the shelves soon.

So while the PCIe gen4 transition is going more slowly than planned, it is still happening. PCIe 4.0 support is finally starting to creep into mobile platforms, which will help make it more mainstream. The PCIe 4.0 SSD options available today are significantly better than the first wave drives that were available a year ago, and the gen4 SSD market is starting to see enough competition to keep prices in check. PC gamers also have plenty of choices for high-end SSDs that match or exceed the performance of what's in the new gaming consoles.

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SATA In Decline

The SATA SSD market has been stagnant for several years, with very few major announcements of new SSD models or controllers. Most SSD vendors have taken to quietly updating the NAND inside their existing SATA models, so familiar names like the Crucial MX500 (launched in December 2017) are still nominally current. Samsung launched the 870 QVO with their second-generation QLC NAND, but the current EVO and PRO SATA models are still the 860 generation.

This year, it is clear that the SATA SSD market isn't just boring, but actually dying. When PC OEMs finally started to drop hard drives even from their low-end machines, they replaced them with NVMe SSDs rather than SATA. There are plenty of options for low-end NVMe SSDs, and they pretty much all outperform SATA SSDs for typical real-world use. The capacity advantage for SATA SSDs is now mostly gone: there are 8TB QLC and 4TB TLC options for both SATA and NVMe, though massive NVMe SSDs do still carry a price premium over SATA SSDs of similar capacity. Some major SSD vendors have already EOL'd their client OEM SATA SSDs. The SATA SSD market is collapsing in the same direction as the hard drive market: the list of use cases where SATA SSDs make sense is shrinking, and looks a lot like the list of use cases where hard drives still make sense. The biggest lingering advantage SATA SSDs have going forward is that a desktop or NAS usually has more SATA ports/bays than M.2 NVMe slots.

Since mechanical hard drives won't be disappearing in the foreseeable future, SATA SSDs can also stick around for a very long time, but increasingly as niche products rather than reasonable candidates for primary storage in a consumer PC. We don't recommend SATA SSDs for new PC builds, there aren't many PCs left that need a SATA SSD for an aftermarket upgrade, and SSDs in general are still too expensive to replace hard drives for consumer NAS and backup duty.

QLC NAND Enables 8TB Consumer SSDs

QLC NAND flash hit the market in 2018. This stores four bits of data per physical memory cell, rather than the three bits per cell of more mainstream TLC NAND flash memory. The general situation for consumer QLC SSDs isn't much different today from when they first showed up. Compared to TLC, QLC NAND is a bit cheaper, but sacrifices performance and write endurance. Those tradeoffs can make sense for an entry-level SSD, but it's not the only way to make a good affordable SSD. DRAMless SSDs with TLC NAND are still competitive at capacities up to 1TB, especially when using NVMe rather than SATA.

We're now two or three generations into the QLC era and QLC is making some inroads to the market, but it definitely isn't taking over—not even for entry-level consumer SSDs. Aside from product refreshes that replaced 64-layer QLC with 92/96L QLC, most of the action has been the introduction of new QLC product lines based around the Phison E12S NVMe controller, and a few using the Phison E16 PCIe 4.0 NVMe controller. These drives have raised the bar a bit for consumer QLC performance since they use 8-channel controllers rather than the 4-channel controllers used by most other low-end NVMe SSDs, and those controllers have also helped enable several 8TB M.2 NVMe products.

There are some indications that in 2021 we may see significant adoption of QLC by PC OEMs. So far, they have been wary of using QLC SSDs in part because they have to cover them as part of the whole system's warranty. Consumer QLC SSDs are no longer an unproven novelty, and OEMs can now secure multiple sources of QLC client SSDs. Uptake of QLC by PC OEMs may complicate the laptop buying process for consumers trying to avoid QLC drives, but on the other hand it should help finish pushing mechanical hard drives out of prebuilt PCs.

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  • IBM760XL - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    I suspect Duncan may be referring to laptops, where it's not rare to have one m.2 connector and one SATA 2.5" connector. That was the reason my most recently purchased SSD was a SATA SSD.

    Though it would be interesting to hear how much of that market is migrating to offering two m.2 connectors instead of one of each.
  • Lucky Stripes 99 - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    That assumes that you have a free PCIe slot. For many SFF systems, adding an M.2 adapter card is not an option. Once your M.2 slots are full, you're stuck with SATA, Thunderbolt, or USB. That'll be the situation until U.2 begins to replace SATA.
  • Great_Scott - Sunday, January 3, 2021 - link

    NVME with either lower-quality or slower Flash (sometimes both!) is always a bad idea. Almost every PC in existence still has room for an additional 2.5" SATA drive, and aside from the utter lack in savings going with QLC, SATA drives at 4+ TB make a great replacement for spinning rust.

    I continue to fail understanding why Anandtech is pushing QLC so hard when it's bad for everyone except OEMs. Anything QLC drives are targeted at, TLC SATA or even HDDs are a better option.

    Reviews where crap NVME drives don't exceed SATA port performance, yet are still recommended for anything other than a notebook, still make me SMH.
  • dotes12 - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    I've replaced an existing NVMe drive with a larger one on a mobo with only one NVMe slot by buying a $5 PCIe NVMe adapter card to get them both running at the same time so that I could clone old to new. Or you can buy a $15 External USB to PCIe NVM enclosure, and you have the added benefit of being able to repurpose your old NVMe drive as a portable USB flash drive with pretty fast transfer speeds.
  • khanikun - Sunday, January 3, 2021 - link

    I was always hoping that chip prices would drop and that's where SATA SSDs would shine. With their physically larger size, they could fit more chips in it and start replacing HDDs. Well that never seemed to have materialized.

    I wouldn't care if a SATA SSD wasn't as fast as some of the fastest NVMe drives, if it's got larger capacity. If they made a 6 TB SATA SSD that cost $300 and was only double the performance of a HDD, I'd buy a bunch of them now.
  • cyberguyz - Monday, January 4, 2021 - link

    There are available cheap (relatively speaking) USB 3.1 and USB-C PCIe M.2 drive enclosures that make upgrading to a larger NVMe drive a lot easier. Just pop the new drive into the enclosure and clone the existing drive over. Swap them when the copy is finished and you are done. Did this for upgrading a laptop with a small 256G pcie M.2 drive to a 1TB pcie M.2 drive. Worked well.
  • shabby - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    "So far, they have been wary of using QLC SSDs in part because they have to cover them as part of the whole system's warranty."

    Lol are you serious? That's funny :)
  • felixbrault - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    It’s true! From a warranty perspective, the battery and the ssd are the only components with a shelf life. Won’t be surprise if we start seeing TB written % in the warranty limitation (same as battery)
  • Makaveli - Wednesday, December 30, 2020 - link

    I'm not sure about the not recommending SATA for new builds. As secondary drives they are fine. I went M2 Nvme for my boot drive and Raid 0 setup with Samsung 860 EVO for my games drives there are no hard drives in my build as I have a NAS on the network. I only have 1 m2 slot available and still 4 unused SATA ports.

    I will use those 4 additional sata ports before I fill the 2nd M2 slot most likely. Its only when I see games that will benefit from NVME that I will be concerned with loading them on my drive. Now if they could bring down pricing on 2TB and 4TB SATA drives that would be great.
  • GeoffreyA - Saturday, January 2, 2021 - link

    Apart from the cables, nothing really wrong with SATA.

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